Investigation of Socioeconomic Drivers of Decadal Scale Land-Cover
Changes in the Upper Midwest.
Funding is from NASA’s Land-Cover
and Land-Use Change Program (NAG5-6042.) 1997-2000.
Bryan Pijanowski and
This project examines changes in
land cover patterns as a function of socioeconomic changes, dispersed
development, and subsequent changes in the spatial patterns of
land ownership in the Upper Midwest (defined to include forested
regions of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin). Spatial patterns
of land ownership (i.e., parcel size and pattern) and their trajectories
through time provide a critical link in understanding the environmental
implications (i.e., LCLUC) of societal and economic factors.
This project involves
(a) mapping multi-temporal patterns of land cover from historical
aerial photographs (at resolutions similar to the TRW/Lewis
and CTA/Clark panchromatic data) and NASA Pathfinder data (i.e.,
North American Landscape Characterization--NALC) and (b) modeling
rates and types of change in land cover patterns as functions
of rates of change in land ownership patterns and socioeconomic
factors. Spatial and temporal exploratory statistical analyses
will be used to quantify the relationships between socioeconomic
processes, changes in the patterns of land ownership and cover
patterns observed for a set of 136 area frame samples throughout
the region. The observed relationships are being used to parameterize
a GIS and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) -based, spatial-temporal
model of land use/cover and pattern change using the Land Transformation
Model. The predictive ability of the spatial-temporal model
is being be assessed at the pixel, site, county, and regional
scales using NALC MSS triplets. The LTM has now been used to
examine such effects as policy, economics, demographics, landscape
features on land use change in a variety of locations in the
Upper Great Lakes States.
The 136 area frame samples, shown
in Figure 1, are stratified across the Upper great Lake States
region. Stratification was based on county population, proximity
to roads and state parts and federal forests. The NALC images
selected for forest cover study are shown in red. The area frame
samples shown as small squares on this figure are located in 17
counties (Table 1) in the three states.
Table 1. Counties located in the NAA study area.
||Lake of the Wood
Location of the study areas (counties in purple) and Lnadsat TM images (red boxes)
D., B. Pijanowski and J. Duh. 2001. Modeling the Relationships between Land
Use and Land Cover on Private Lands in the Upper Midwest. Journal of
Environmental Management. 59:247-263.
B.C., D. G. Brown, G. Manik and B. Shellito.
2002. Using Neural Nets and GIS to Forecast Land Use Changes: A Land
Transformation Model. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 26(6)
Last updated by BCP on October 26, 2002.
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