a Forecasting Tool to Quantify the Economic Impacts of Future Urban
Change on Michigan's Land Based Industries.
Stuart Gage, Michigan State University
Bryan Pijanowski, Michigan State
at Purdue University)
David Skole, Michigan State University
An assessment was made of the potential
economic effects to key Michigan natural resource industries that
might result from changes in land use. An emphasis is being placed
on how future land use patterns may affect the fragmentation of the
state’s natural resources. Natural resources industries that will
be examined include: tourism and recreation, agriculture, forestry
The Land Transformation Model will
be used to project to the year 2020 and 2040 using the current
GIS-ANN Land Transformation Modeling framework. Economists from across
the state of Michigan provided data and expertise was used to assess
the financial impacts of the fragmentation of natural resources on
these key natural resource industries.
1. Time series of urbanization around Southeastern Michigan from
1980 to 2040 produced by the LTM (click on image to the right
for higher resolution graphic).
See specific years in more detail (1980, 1995, 2020 and 2040)
We also examined
how the fragmentation of land uses changed over time and how well
the model predicted this spatial pattern as reflected in a series
of landscape pattern metrics, such as patch size, number of patches
and the diversity of patch types (measured as a function of Shannon
Diversity using Patch Analyst 2.1).
An example of
our results are shown below in Figures 2 and 3.
2. The number of patches of each land use over time for the Muskegon
River Watershed, an area that covers 20% of the lower Peninsula
And for the diversity
of land uses.
|Figure 3. The diversiy
of land uses over time for the Muskegon River Watershed. Diversity
was calculated using the Shannon Diversity Index within Patch
A report was submitted to the Michigan
Environmental and Economic Roundtable (MEER). You can go Public Sector Consultants, Inc (Lansing Michigan) to read the report
and view the PowerPoint presentation.
This project was funded by the Kellogg
and Frey Foundations.
Last updated by BCP on February 3, 2008.
Copyright by Purdue University